Background 1.5-mile run time, as a surrogate measure of aerobic fitness, is associated with musculoskeletal injury (MSI) risk in military recruits. This study aimed to determine if 1.5-mile run times can predict injury risk and attrition rates from phase 1 (initial) training and determine if a link exists between phase 1 and 2 discharge outcomes in British Army recruits.

Method 1.5-mile times from week 1 of initial training and MSI reported during training were retrieved for 3446 male recruits. Run times were examined against injury occurrence and training outcomes for 3050 recruits, using a Binary Logistic Regression and χ² analysis.

Results The 1.5-mile run can predict injury risk and phase 1 attrition rates (χ²(1)=59.3 p<0.001, χ²(1)=66.873 p<0.001). Slower 1.5-mile run times were associated with higher injury occurrence (χ²(1)=59.3 p<0.001) and reduced phase 1 (χ² 104.609^a p<0.001) and 2 (χ² 84.978^a p<0.001) success.

Conclusion The 1.5-mile run can be used to guide a future standard that will in turn help reduce injury occurrence and improve training success.